From extreme heat to catastrophic flooding and wild temperature variations, 2023 brought some pretty extraordinary weather to people all across the country. So what's on the horizon for hurricane season 2024? Unfortunately, all signs point to it being a rough one.
Atlantic hurricane season preview
On April 24, 2024, the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project issued its first extended range estimate with some rather grim predictions for the 2024 hurricane season. The CSU researchers are – for now – predicting an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, citing record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures post-El Niño as a primary factor for these conditions.
CSU predicts the following activity during 2024's Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30:
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23 named storms.
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11 hurricanes.
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5 major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson Category 3, 4, and 5, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater).
The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 11, July 9, and Aug. 6.
AccuWeather forecasters agree, and predict a hurricane season that is well above the historical average with:
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20 to 25 named storms.
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8 to 12 hurricanes.
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4 to 7 major hurricanes.
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4 to 6 direct US impacts.
These predictions are above the 30-year historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and four direct US impacts.
AccuWeather also blames the anticipated high level of activity on warmer-than-average water temperatures further triggered by the effects of the transition from an El Niño climate pattern (which normally brings higher-than-average temperatures) to La Niña (which is associated with colder temps).
How might this hurricane season compare to last year?
Predictions from both the CSU research and AccuWeather indicate a more active season than last year. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth most active on record, producing 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. That includes Hurricane Idalia, which hit Florida full force as a Category 3 storm.
To date, 2020 remains the most active season on record in terms of total storms, with 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes.
What are tropical cyclone probabilities and how do they impact storm predictions where you live?
The CSU report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2024:
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62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880 - 2020 is 43%).
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34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880 - 2020 is 21%).
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42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880 - 2020 is 27%).
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66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880 - 2020 is 47%).
What's more, CSU this year introduced a new methodology for calculating the probability of major storms hitting each state and county along the Gulf and East Coasts of the US. Using the Tropical Cyclone Probability method, CSU makes the following predictions about storm impacts in 2024:
2024 CSU tropical cyclone impact probabilities
|
|
Probability of named storm impact |
Probability of hurricane impact |
Probability of major hurricane impact |
|
78% |
43% |
14% |
|
|
96% |
75% |
44% |
|
|
82% |
46% |
10% |
|
|
84% |
56% |
23% |
|
|
72% |
34% |
13% |
|
|
76% |
44% |
14% |
|
|
Texas |
80% |
54% |
25% |
|
Virginia |
65% |
31% |
2% |
Hurricanes and climate change
According to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), scientists haven’t connected the dots between the number of hurricanes and climate change. But the data does suggest that rising sea levels and surface temperatures means we are likely in for more intense hurricanes.
Climate change might also be the reason more cities outside of the traditional hurricane zone are experiencing more storms. According to C2ES, hurricanes’ migration towards both poles may be the result of rising global temperatures. Plus, the lead author of the Nature Geoscience study stated in a press release that this shift as “an important, under-estimated risk of climate change.”
How to prepare for hurricane season 2024
The key to preparing for any potential problem is knowing your chance of experiencing a hurricane. This may be even more important now as more cities appear to have increased hurricane risk.
Once you understand if you’re likely to see a hurricane, you can develop a plan to help you weather the storm. For example, you want to prepare a hurricane plan that includes steps like:
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Drawing up an evacuation route.
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Putting together an evacuation kit.
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Purchasing essential supplies if you need to shelter in place.
You also want to think about ways you can make your home more resilient, such as buying hurricane shutters or trimming tree branches. Regularly checking and maintaining your roof as a preemptive measure also minimizes your chances of suffering water damage.
Another part of your hurricane preparedness plan is to review your home insurance policy to make sure you have the coverage you need. Home insurance, for example, often covers damage caused by hurricane winds, but flood damage from an external source is usually excluded. This may mean you need flood insurance as well.
Read more about hurricane insurance.
